Out of sight of the world and far from the eye of the media, a bloody war is being waged in Yemen against Shiite terror organizations which receive support and backing from Iran. Occasionally, Shiite terror groups will cooperate with terror activists identified with al-Qaeda to try to topple the present regime, which for many reasons, is seen as illegitimate.

A quick look at the Arab world reveals clearly that many Arab states are locked in brutal and bloody civil wars. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, the Palestinian Authority, and Sudan are struggling with violent local conflicts of varying degrees of ferocity, in which people are dying on an ongoing daily basis.

Recently Yemen, with its sizeable Shiite population consisting of some 50% of the Yemeni population, joined this long list. Certain sources firmly note that the Sunnis remain a majority in the country-with a little over 50% in total. However, these statistics are not reliable given the many historical economic, political, and social problems suffered by Yemen.

About Yemen

Yemen became united in 1990 following twenty years of struggle between the north and the communist south. United Yemen defines itself as a presidential republic, though tribal codes still play an important role in local politics. The Yemeni regime joined the American war on international terror reflected in friendly meetings in the past between the presidents of Yemen and the United States.

The leader of Yemen (population 22 million), is President Ali Abdullah Salih, a Shiite, who has held office since 1990. Salih has always intended to bequeath the presidency to his son, causing great political dissatisfaction and tribal tension.

In 2006, Yemen's GNP per capita was $1,000 a year. This compares with Israel's GNP of $26,000 per capita in 2007 values, and Saudi Arabia's GNP of $14,000 per capita.

Doubtful Questionable Agreement with al-Qaeda

On July 2 2007, a suicide bomber exploded a car bomb in the Mareb province of north-east Yemen. Seven Spanish tourists and two locals were killed in the blast. A senior government source announced that al-Qaeda responsible since the local authorities had received warning regarding a possible attack by activists associated with al-Qaeda. This event inadvertently exposed Yemen's peculiar attitude toward al-Qaeda, especially after the attack on the American destroyer "Cole" in the Gulf of Aden in October 2000 when 17 American sailors died. Despite agreements with the US on the war against international terror, the Yemeni authorities sought agreement with local al-Qaeda activists to prevent a repetition. The regime was worried this

might attract unwelcome western interference in the already fragile country, and might provoke violent Islamic opposition at home.

According to the Yemen government, it was a successful plan intended to encourage the activists to ceasefire their terror activities. The principle was to permit identification with al-Qaeda and bin-Laden (and even to give al-Qaeda material support), but not to act against the state and its institutions or use Yemen as a platform for hostilities against other countries. To implement the program, which started off secretly with the knowledge of American officials, a committee was set up to identify al-Qaeda activists and reach agreements with them regarding what they can and cannot do.

To convince activists to accept this tough stance, Yemen promised them good jobs, money, and even marriage to local women. The agreements were not only made with junior activists, the authorities also reached agreement with body guards of bin-Laden captured in Yemen.

Until the most recent event on July 2, the Yemeni authorities believed that except for isolated cases, the program was in general a success. However, to other observers, mainly the west, Yemen had merely achieved a temporary ceasefire with al-Qaeda, which regards Yemen as "bin-Laden's one and only homeland".

We should also bear other factors in mind, of which the authorities are aware but prefer for now to ignore: in February 2006, 23 terror activists, some considered highly dangerous, successfully escaped from a prison in Yemen. For example, one of the most important prisoners was Nasir al-Wahishi, the self declared leader of al-Qaeda in Yemen. Besides improving al-Qaeda's prestige with the local population, the escape also showed the organization's ability to penetrate strategic areas of power, since without active inside help it is doubtful the escapees could have carried out their plan. Yemen also offers fertile ground for recruiting new al-Qaeda activists

and in one of the poorest countries in the world; it is easy to tempt new recruits to enlist for $1300 dollars.

Iranian Sponsored Shiite Terror

The Saada province, 250 km north of the capital Sana near the Saudi Arabian border, has a large Shiite population and is the center of vicious terrorism and violence. In 2004, an Islamic organization called "Believing Youth" was formed by the Shiite Imam Hussein Badruddin Al-Houthi. A short time later, Badruddin was killed by Yemeni security forces in one of the battles that broke out in the region. He was replaced by Abdul al-Malak al-Houthi-an unyielding Shiite who will stop at nothing to topple the secular regime and replace it with a religious Islamic state. The movement's activists are known as "al-Houthi" after the present leader.

The violent events which periodically erupt in the region reached a climax towards the end of 2006. Members of the movement declared Saada province a "liberated region", operating according to strict Muslim law. Immediately afterwards, in January 2007, Shiite activists sent death threats to the small Jewish community that had survived in the region, maintaining that Jews had sold wine and alcohol. Very scared, the remaining Jews were forced to leave their homes and seek protection from the security forces, which provided assistance. Until the late 1940s, Yemen was home to 70,000 Jews, but now only 300-400 remain.

According to estimates, 3,000 people have died since the violence began, including security force personnel. According to government sources, more than 35,000 people have been forced to flee the region due to fighting between the organization's members and the security forces.

Hostilities peaked in May 2007, and fears rose that they would spill into other parts of Yemen. In a desperate move, Yemen recalled its ambassadors to Libya and Iran for "consultations", after official claims that these countries were actively supporting the Shiite movement. The Yemen government issued a statement slamming foreign interference and threatening to "confront such interference in order to safeguard vital national interests and ensure the security and stability of the country".

The Yemen government's actions in this case show great hypocrisy since as far as we know official sources in Libya and Yemen sell weapons to family gangs in Sinai, which import vast quantities of weapons into the Gaza Strip, which despite the Hamas takeover still reach the many Gaza organizations.

IN recent months, the Yemeni government has tried to reach an agreement with the Shiite rebels in Saada province. Through Qatar's mediation, the two sides agreed a ceasefire, which was signed in June 2007. Qatar has agreed to rehabilitate Saada province and as a gesture of goodwill offered refuge in Qatar to leaders of the movement who promised to lead normative lives. To ensure this agreement was carried out, a committee was created to supervise the agreement between the two sides. As usual in such cases, celebratory declarations were made as befitting the occasion. However, on July 6 2007, the Yemeni government issued an ultimatum to the organization demanding that it fulfill the terms of the agreement by July 8 as officially agreed. The government maintains that since the agreement was signed in June, the movement has broken the agreement more than 200 times.

The Yemen government reports that large numbers of military personnel have died during the violations and hostages were taken in the province. Given the movement's active involvement in the region we can assume its members are in no hurry to lay down their arms and yield to the ultimatum because zealotry carries infinitely more weight than political agreements with secular regimes, which in any case are illegitimate under religious law.

Once can also gather that the Yemeni government's change of policies on the radical movements is another reason for the growing violence in the country. Yemen also has great strategic importance since it controls the Bab al-Mandeb Straits linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. The significance of this has not been lost in Iran or the other radical movements in the Middle East.

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By: Dr. Yohai Sela